Crude Oil vs. RBOB Futures
These are weekly prices from the EIA. The crude oil price is divided by 42 gallons per barrel.
Between September 2007 and April 2008, the average difference between The price of wholesale gasoline and crude oil was $0.15 per gallon. Extrapolating this gives a price of crude oil at abouit $135 per barrel for wholesale gasoline to reach $3.40 per gallon. At this price the average national retail price of gasoline should be at least $4.
This is done using the very close $0.15 difference and low refinery margins of the last 6 months. From the graph, it can be seen that differences of 60 and 70 cents are not atypical. Therefore retail prices could easily approach $4 at present levels of $100-$120 per barrel of crude.
At the time of this writing, NY RBOB is $3.05, Crude is $119, and The retail average for regular unleaded is $3.60.